St Etienne v Man Utd

The French side looked decent in patches in the first leg and I thought the score slightly flattered Utd.

Utd won’t be looking to post a big score here, they will be happy to sit back and hit St Etienne on the break; maybe even resting some of the bigger players such as Zlatan.

As such, I’ll be taking the French side with a big handicap.

St Etienne +3 £120.80 at odds 1.07

I wouldn’t be surprised to see the French side nick this 1-0, but the aim is to always be safe here. At the end of the day, Utd have the quality to put a couple past the hosts, hence the handicap.

Utd win 1-0 New Bank £1,518.44

 

Derby v Burton

Derby aren’t on the best run of form, but I can’t see them being beaten by their rivals both home and away’ after losing the reverse 1-0 earlier in the season.

Derby have goals in them, and apart from the last couple of games, the usually have a tight defence.

Lay Burton £114.90 at odds 1.17

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a narrow Derby win, getting their play off hopes back on track.

Bayer v Atletico

Not a lot to say about this Champions league 1st leg in Germany. Both sides have the ability to score, but they’re also not as shored up at the back as in previous seasons.

One goal or more £125.57 at odds 1.1045

I don’ t see a goal fest, but there should be at least one; especially with Atletico’s ability up front.

Newcastle v Villa

What should be a battle between the top sides in The Championship, has become a match with differing aspirations. Of the two former Premiership teams, only Newcastle are looking like a quick return to the top division.

Few would have expected Villa to be struggling in this division, but that’s exactly what they are doing.

The challenge isn’t made any easier by the fact that Villa are winless in their last 8, and heaven’t beaten Newcastle since 2011.

I don’t expect an easy win for Newcastle, but I do expect a win; especially if Gayle makes his return as expected.

Lay Aston Villa £112.16 at odds 1.15

Update Newcastle win 2-0 New Bank £1,477.32

Barcelona v Leganes

Barcelona should be coming into this match looking to make up for the 4-0 loss to PSG earlier in the week.

Leganes are winless in their last 1o and lost 5-1 to Barca in the opposite match.

Barcelona to win £121.75 at odds 1.08

Only a win will do for Barcelona if they’re to keep the pressure on Real Madrid.

Barcelona win 2-1 New Bank £1,442.11

Unconvincing win from Barcelona. Leganes really should have taken something from this match. A win for the bank is all that matters though.

Wolves v Chelsea

Chelsea don’t have Europe to worry about next week, so they can stay completely focused on this match. Conte may rest a couple, but the remaiing players should be good enough to take out the Championship side.

Wolves have done well to reach this stage; taking out Liverpool in the previous round, but I think this is a step too far. Chelsea should win this.

Lay Wolves £120.83 at odds 1.07

Costa and Hazard should have too much for this Wolves defence.

Update Chelsea struggle to a 2-0 win New Bank £1,432.37

Staking Plans

It’s clear that without a well thought out staking plan, any hope I have of making consistent money in this experiment will be doomed before it really starts.

That’s why I’m constantly on the lookout to refine any plan I’m using. I stared this experiment with £1,000 and would put 10% of my bank (no more, no less) onto each bank. The theory behind this is that no matter how bad a losing run I eventually hit, the bank should be safe.

Since I started, I’ve added £100 (which I intend to do each month) and I’ve added around another £300 with winning bets.

Each time an additional £100 is added, I’ve reduced the stake by 0.5%. This means that I’m currently putting 8.5% of my bank onto each bet. The intention is to keep doing this until I’m eventually only putting 5% of my bank onto each bet; in theory giving further protection to the bank.

This means that by the time my bank (hopefully) reaches £2,000, I’ll only be risking 5% on each bet.

Obviously, the most important part of betting is to pick winners; but if we don’t have a staking plan, no amount of winners will matter if one loss could wipe out the bank.

The good thing about sticking to a level percentage, is that subsequent losses will have a reduced affect on the bank, while subsequent winners will greatly increase the bank. With enough correct bets in a row, there’s potential for some serious growth of the bank.

As long as I remember to stay disciplined, and only place the bets I’ve really thought through, I’m in an ideal situation of betting within my means and maximizing potential returns.

I intend to keep reviewing my staking plan and making changes where appropriate. Hopefully over the coming weeks and months, I can find what works best for both my bank, and my state of mind.

I place much better bets when emotion is taken out.

Burton v Norwich

Two sides in differing forms; Burton not getting the results, while Norwich have turned around a mini slump. Feel that Norwich with the 2 goal start is the way to go with this one.

Norwich +2 £119.81 at odds 1.1

Norwich need to win to close the gap on the playoffs. I expect the quality to get past the side struggling to stay out of the bottom 3.

Update Burton win 2-1 New Bank £1,421.50

Man Utd v St Etienne

Straight forward lay of St Etienne here. Utd unbeaten in 16 or there abouts, St Etienne not got the best record away from home.

Utd playing a strong side but they probably have half an eye on the FA Cup this weekend, so there’s a couple of non regulars.

Lay St Etienne £119.10 at odds 1.07

Ibrahimovic and co should make sure this comes in.

Update Ibra delivers the goods – New Bank £1,409.52