Marchenko v Tsonga

Tsonga comes into this off the back of winning in Rotterdam; while Marchenko doesn’t have much of a record on this surface.

Expect the Frenchman to build on his good form in his home country tournament.

Tsonga to win £122.30 at odds 1.07

JWT won their only previous encounter 6-3 6-4

Update Tsonga wins 6-3 6-3 New Bank £1,537.32

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Staking Plans

It’s clear that without a well thought out staking plan, any hope I have of making consistent money in this experiment will be doomed before it really starts.

That’s why I’m constantly on the lookout to refine any plan I’m using. I stared this experiment with £1,000 and would put 10% of my bank (no more, no less) onto each bank. The theory behind this is that no matter how bad a losing run I eventually hit, the bank should be safe.

Since I started, I’ve added £100 (which I intend to do each month) and I’ve added around another £300 with winning bets.

Each time an additional £100 is added, I’ve reduced the stake by 0.5%. This means that I’m currently putting 8.5% of my bank onto each bet. The intention is to keep doing this until I’m eventually only putting 5% of my bank onto each bet; in theory giving further protection to the bank.

This means that by the time my bank (hopefully) reaches £2,000, I’ll only be risking 5% on each bet.

Obviously, the most important part of betting is to pick winners; but if we don’t have a staking plan, no amount of winners will matter if one loss could wipe out the bank.

The good thing about sticking to a level percentage, is that subsequent losses will have a reduced affect on the bank, while subsequent winners will greatly increase the bank. With enough correct bets in a row, there’s potential for some serious growth of the bank.

As long as I remember to stay disciplined, and only place the bets I’ve really thought through, I’m in an ideal situation of betting within my means and maximizing potential returns.

I intend to keep reviewing my staking plan and making changes where appropriate. Hopefully over the coming weeks and months, I can find what works best for both my bank, and my state of mind.

I place much better bets when emotion is taken out.

Leicester v Derby

After the first tie finished 2-2, the replay comes to Leicester. I’m not sure if either team will really welcome a replay with both teams focusing on upcoming games, but I am sure both teams will want to put one over each other.

One goal or more £120.70 at odds 1.095

Not much to say other than I fancy goals to be on the cards.

Update early second half goal New Bank £1,281.95

Emotional Betting

Over the years of betting, one of the main lessons I’ve tried to learn and incorporate into my strategy, is to not bet when emotional.

After a stressful day, I’ve decided to leave the football for this evening. Although I have a staking plan and a loose system for selecting bets (which I intend to tighten), sometimes it’s still better to not bet when you feel judgement is clouded.

By not having a bet, the worst that can happen is you miss that particular event. The upside is so much larger, as you’ll gain another data point and won’t be any worse off financially. From experience, if I was to lose a bet placed while angry and it lost, I would be much more tempted to chase that loss and end up throwing the whole staking plan out of the window. I’m sure anyone who’s bet for any length of time can relate.

As I’ll always maintain on this blog, it’s not about hitting that big, life changing win, it’s all about keeping cool and diligently building a bank.

Weeks from now I won’t remember that I missed a bet, but if I were to place a bet and lose, it has the potential to spoil this whole experiment.

There’s a lot to be said of keeping cool and being patient.Who knows where event will take me over the coming year.

If you keep putting one foot in front of the other, you’ll eventually get where you’re going.

For what it’s worth, I was going to go for Man Utd to not win by exactly 3 goals at odds 1.1187

Night Off

Nothing I feel like having tonight. Can’t see either of the tennis matches being straight sets for anyone but going to leave it.

Sometimes the best option is to have no bet at all. I’ve got to keep in mind, it’s a marathon and not a sprint.