Staking Plans

It’s clear that without a well thought out staking plan, any hope I have of making consistent money in this experiment will be doomed before it really starts.

That’s why I’m constantly on the lookout to refine any plan I’m using. I stared this experiment with £1,000 and would put 10% of my bank (no more, no less) onto each bank. The theory behind this is that no matter how bad a losing run I eventually hit, the bank should be safe.

Since I started, I’ve added £100 (which I intend to do each month) and I’ve added around another £300 with winning bets.

Each time an additional £100 is added, I’ve reduced the stake by 0.5%. This means that I’m currently putting 8.5% of my bank onto each bet. The intention is to keep doing this until I’m eventually only putting 5% of my bank onto each bet; in theory giving further protection to the bank.

This means that by the time my bank (hopefully) reaches £2,000, I’ll only be risking 5% on each bet.

Obviously, the most important part of betting is to pick winners; but if we don’t have a staking plan, no amount of winners will matter if one loss could wipe out the bank.

The good thing about sticking to a level percentage, is that subsequent losses will have a reduced affect on the bank, while subsequent winners will greatly increase the bank. With enough correct bets in a row, there’s potential for some serious growth of the bank.

As long as I remember to stay disciplined, and only place the bets I’ve really thought through, I’m in an ideal situation of betting within my means and maximizing potential returns.

I intend to keep reviewing my staking plan and making changes where appropriate. Hopefully over the coming weeks and months, I can find what works best for both my bank, and my state of mind.

I place much better bets when emotion is taken out.

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Low Odds Betting

While it doesn’t matter if you’re betting at low odds or high odds, I’ve chosen to keep this experiment at low odds i.e. no bigger than 1.20.

I’ve chosen to do this as psychologically it feels much better to have a constant stream of winners (hopefully) rather than sporadic winning and losing streaks.

Obviously, as anyone more than a casual bettor would know, the odds are irrelevant as long as you’re getting value; but I’ve chosen my poison and I’m sticking to it.

The aim of this experiment is to show that with careful selection, I can pick enough winners to steadily increase my bank more than it would increase if it was stuck in standard savings or tracker account. This style  of betting is painfully boring, and without a strict bank management system, unsustainable past any type of sustained losing streak. The hope is that a varied and well thought out selection of bets, will allow for steady profits over the course of a year.

If I only increase my bank by 10%, I’ve already outperformed every bank account out there, and possibly even most of the tracker accounts too.

There’s obviously the possibility of losing a large chunk of my bank, but that’s why it’s important to put money aside that one is comfortable with losing. This has the added bonus of taking emotions out of bets, that could otherwise lead to problems if anger or over confidence come into play. A disciplined approach is the only way to maximize your chance of making any consistent profits.

I’ll often repeat this, more for myself than anything else, but betting really is a marathon and not a sprint. For once, I’m happy to be the tortoise…