Black Swans

I’m not sure if it would be better described as irony or serendipity, but Swansea’s win an Anfield on Saturday was one of those situations where you wonder if the universe has a sense of humour. In the financial world, a ‘black swan event’ (first attributed to the economist Nasim Taleb) is something that happens very rarely, but catches most people out and causes huge¬†losses in the financial markets; think the dotcom bubble bursting in 20o1, or the housing market crash in 2008.

The reason for my sense of irony/serendipity, is the fact that Swansea are known to their fans as ‘The Swans’ and have a black swan as their logo; and they had gone and pulled off their first ever victory at Liverpool.

While this type of scenario hardly sends shock-waves through the world like the black swans in the financial markets, Swansea’s win at Liverpool undoubtedly cost a lot of punters some serious cash. Liverpool went into the game as 1.22 favourites; or as some punters would call them ‘bankers’ causing them to lump far more than usual onto the bet. In some cases, people’s whole bankroll would have gone onto the bet; not a good start to the weekend for the money buyers.

The reason I bring this up, is to stress the importance of having a bank i.e. a set amount of money put aside exclusively for betting, and sticking to a set staking plan.

My bank was ¬£1,000 of which I decided to have a standard stake of 10% of the bank. This is way too high, and I intend to reduce it, but for now that’s my level of risk tolerance. If you’re serious about making some money on the side from betting, you have to rigidly stick to a bank and staking plan. Betting any other way is pure speculation and will all but guarantee you end up busted like the vast majority of gamblers.

I’ll talk more about staking plans as I go on, but for now, feel free to follow my progress (if you can stay awake) and remember to only gamble what you can afford to lose.