Another peculiarity of betting I’ve noticed over the years, is the number of patterns that tend to crop up in certain situations. I’ve never made any calculations that take these patterns into account, but maybe I should?
One that’s stuck with me the most for the last couple of years is the fact that in tennis, it regularly happens that one player will win a close set on a tie breaker, but in the very next set they will easily be beaten 6-1. The reverse is often true too. Like I said, I’ve never worked out what the true odds of this should be, but I’m sure bookies haven’t taken it into account when compiling odds ‘in play’; maybe it’s something I should look into to work on my edge.
Anyway, the reason for mentioning this is that during my research for a potential bet tonight, I noticed an interesting (recent)pattern in the Williams sisters match up.
The hard hitting sisters match up for the 28th time, in tomorrow’s Australian Open Final (Serena leads 8-3 in finals 16-11 overall) and all the hype is around Serena making it 7 AO wins; Venus has been given little chance.
While I don’t disagree with this, I noticed that in the last 12 meetings, Serena has won twice but followed that up with a loss against her older sister. Well tomorrow happens to be the 13th match in this run, and Serena has won the previous 2; could this be an omen?
While I don’t really believe in this type of thing, I can’t help but have a cheeky fun bet on Venus to win 2 sets to 1 (odds of 8.00) which has come in 3 out of 4 times in that sequence.
I’ll likely be wrong, but there’s no way you’ll get me taking 1.20 on a Serena win.