I suspect that the hardest part of any speculation is knowing when to pull the trigger and when to hold fire. With betting in particular, there’s an almost limitless choice of events and markets within those events to choose from.

Unlike the financial markets, the bookies never really close; this is where self discipline is vital. If you can’t stay disciplined at all times, you have no chance of making any long term profits. The key point to remember is that the bookies have to price every event up, whereas we (the bettor) can be as selective and most importantly, patient.

By picking and choosing your events, you can create an edge that will hopefully over an extended period, provide profits. The road to ruining your bank is betting without a clear plan and clear mind; emotional betting is what the bookmakers count on.

The reason I bring up discipline today, is the fact that today’s schedule looks particularly unappetizing on first glance. It may be tempting to force a bet; especially when betting at such small odds, but one has to always keep in mind the long game. Some days it’s best to keep the powder dry and wait for an opportunity to present itself.

So it looks likely to be just the one bet today:

Liverpool v Swansea 1 goal or more at 1.08 odds

Swansea have a new manager but no new players of any quality. Swansea need to win so will have to push forward, Liverpool need to win to keep the pressure on Chelsea. The attacking quality should shine through – £100.61 to win £7.55 after commission.

Update – Early second half goal ensures a winning bet. Funny old game, Swansea win their first ever game at Anfield. Some burned fingers out there today. New bank – £1013.64



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