Das Experiment

OK so as the title suggests, this blog is intended to be somewhat of an experiment for at least the next 12 months; hopefully a whole lot longer, but we’ll see what happens.

The basic premise is that I’m going to see how much I can turn an initial bankroll of £1,000 into over the next 12 months. This is going to involve betting on sports (mainly Football, but occasionally Tennis) with a maximum of 10% of my ‘bank’. I may change this figure as I go on, but for now I’m happy with this figure.

I’ve been considering investing (speculating) in stocks and shares for some time now, but I’ve never really been interested enough to put the serious work in. However, sports are a different animal. I’ve spent most of my life following sports and having the odd flutter along the way; so I decided to try and see if investing principles can be applied to gambling. The way I see is that stock picking is nothing more than gambling anyway, so why not apply that mindset to sports?

This is most definitely not going to be ‘sexy’ or a get rich quick scheme, but slow and steady will hopefully win the race. I’ll basically be choosing low odds bets that will be as close to ‘certs’ as I can convince myself of. If returns of 5% annualy are considered good in the investing world, I’ll be happy to take equivalent odds of around 1.06.

I’m under no illusion that this will in all likelihood fail and I’ll end up losing the majority of my bank, but at the end of the day I can afford to lose it; I see this as a chance to learn something and hopefully inspire an interesting conversation or two along the way.

So without further ado, let’s dive right in and have the first pick:-

Lay Freiburg v Bayern Munich @ 17.00 odds

The end of the winter break is a slight concern, but that affects both teams and with Bayern coming back from a 5 game winning streak, coupled with a strong record against Freiburg, I’m comfortable with this bet – £100 to win £6.09 after commission.

Update – After going behind within 5 minutes, Bayern come out with an unconvincing win. New bank – £1006.09

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