Low Odds Betting

While it doesn’t matter if you’re betting at low odds or high odds, I’ve chosen to keep this experiment at low odds i.e. no bigger than 1.20.

I’ve chosen to do this as psychologically it feels much better to have a constant stream of winners (hopefully) rather than sporadic winning and losing streaks.

Obviously, as anyone more than a casual bettor would know, the odds are irrelevant as long as you’re getting value; but I’ve chosen my poison and I’m sticking to it.

The aim of this experiment is to show that with careful selection, I can pick enough winners to steadily increase my bank more than it would increase if it was stuck in standard savings or tracker account. This style  of betting is painfully boring, and without a strict bank management system, unsustainable past any type of sustained losing streak. The hope is that a varied and well thought out selection of bets, will allow for steady profits over the course of a year.

If I only increase my bank by 10%, I’ve already outperformed every bank account out there, and possibly even most of the tracker accounts too.

There’s obviously the possibility of losing a large chunk of my bank, but that’s why it’s important to put money aside that one is comfortable with losing. This has the added bonus of taking emotions out of bets, that could otherwise lead to problems if anger or over confidence come into play. A disciplined approach is the only way to maximize your chance of making any consistent profits.

I’ll often repeat this, more for myself than anything else, but betting really is a marathon and not a sprint. For once, I’m happy to be the tortoise…

Bournemouth v Palace

Seven games to choose from tonight and I’ve settled on the match taking place at Dean Court.

Bournemouth v Crystal Palace one goal or more at odds 1.078

On paper this looks like a cert – Bournemouth scoring and conceding plenty, Palace conceding for fun but not scored in 3 matches; surely that will end tonight…

Unfortunately for punters, matches aren’t played on paper, but that shouldn’t stop at least one goal tonight.

Update Palace win 2-0 new bank £1,107.83

Early second half goal settles this bet

 

Final Thoughts

In case you’re wondering, I’m not thinking of giving up the experiment yet. It may be painfully slow progress at the minute, but eventually things will pick up. No, I’m talking about the final of the men’s Australian Open.

The women’s went pretty much as expected; although my theory of the pattern repeating were proved unsurprisingly wrong; with Serena winning in straight sets. Next, we have the main event, with Federer playing Nadal, in what most would admit is an unexpected final.

I’ll be making sure I’m awake to watch what is likely to be the last pairing of this pair in a major final, before (most likely) Federer retires.

Lay Federer 3-0 at 1.1624

I see this being a close affair, with Nadal coming out on top. Nadal leads the head to head 23-11, with the Spaniard leading 8-2 on hard courts.

Update – Federer wins 3-2 New Bank £1093.66

 

 

Keeping it Simple

Not a lot sticks out today, so going to keep it simple and go for 1 or more goals in the Man City FA Cup game

Back 1 or more goals in Crystal Palace v Man City at 1.0488

Should be plenty of goals here. Neither side will want a replay and plenty of attacking option on the pitch.

Update – Man City win 3-0 New Bank £1076.18

Patterns

Another peculiarity of betting I’ve noticed over the years, is the number of patterns that tend to crop up in certain situations. I’ve never made any calculations that take these patterns into account, but maybe I should?

One that’s stuck with me the most for the last couple of years is the fact that in tennis, it regularly happens that one player will win a close set on a tie breaker, but in the very next set they will easily be beaten 6-1. The reverse is often true too. Like I said, I’ve never worked out what the true odds of this should be, but I’m sure bookies haven’t taken it into account when compiling odds ‘in play’; maybe it’s something I should look into to work on my edge.

Anyway, the reason for mentioning this is that during my research for a potential bet tonight, I noticed an interesting (recent)pattern in the Williams sisters match up.

The hard hitting sisters match up for the 28th time, in tomorrow’s Australian Open Final (Serena leads 8-3 in finals 16-11 overall) and all the hype is around Serena making it 7 AO wins; Venus has been given little chance.

While I don’t disagree with this, I noticed that in the last 12 meetings, Serena has won twice but followed that up with a loss against her older sister. Well tomorrow happens to be the 13th match in this run, and Serena has won the previous 2; could this be an omen?

While I don’t really believe in this type of thing, I can’t help but have a cheeky fun bet on Venus to win 2 sets to 1 (odds of 8.00) which has come in 3 out of 4 times in that sequence.

I’ll likely be wrong, but there’s no way you’ll get me taking 1.20 on a Serena win.

Emotional Betting

Over the years of betting, one of the main lessons I’ve tried to learn and incorporate into my strategy, is to not bet when emotional.

After a stressful day, I’ve decided to leave the football for this evening. Although I have a staking plan and a loose system for selecting bets (which I intend to tighten), sometimes it’s still better to not bet when you feel judgement is clouded.

By not having a bet, the worst that can happen is you miss that particular event. The upside is so much larger, as you’ll gain another data point and won’t be any worse off financially. From experience, if I was to lose a bet placed while angry and it lost, I would be much more tempted to chase that loss and end up throwing the whole staking plan out of the window. I’m sure anyone who’s bet for any length of time can relate.

As I’ll always maintain on this blog, it’s not about hitting that big, life changing win, it’s all about keeping cool and diligently building a bank.

Weeks from now I won’t remember that I missed a bet, but if I were to place a bet and lose, it has the potential to spoil this whole experiment.

There’s a lot to be said of keeping cool and being patient.Who knows where event will take me over the coming year.

If you keep putting one foot in front of the other, you’ll eventually get where you’re going.

For what it’s worth, I was going to go for Man Utd to not win by exactly 3 goals at odds 1.1187

Federer

Semi finals of the Oz open. Should be an interesting match-up.

Lay Wawrinka 3-0 v Federer at 1.1284

I can’t see anything but a Federer win here, so a 3-0 win for Wawrinka looks very unlikely. The Fed has an 18-3 record against Stan, so I’m tempted to go for the straight win at the odds, 1.67; but the aim is to be conservative and go for the ‘safe bets’. Come on Rog!

Update – Federer wins 3-2 New bank – £1070.96

Night Off

Nothing I feel like having tonight. Can’t see either of the tennis matches being straight sets for anyone but going to leave it.

Sometimes the best option is to have no bet at all. I’ve got to keep in mind, it’s a marathon and not a sprint.

Stan The Man

Didn’t fancy anything on the football today; African Cup of Nations is a bit too hit and miss for me, so I’ll stick to what I know.

Lay a straight sets victory for Tsonga at 8.00 odds

Fancy the former champ to come through here in a close contest. Betting against a straight forward for the Frenchman seems like the sensible bet – £104.29 to win £14.53 after commission.

Update – Stan shows his class to win in 3 New bank – £1057.38